Covid-19 trends in England

Using ASMODEE to monitor NHS pathways in England

Thibaut Jombart, Dirk Schumacher, Tim Taylor
2021-03-29

Using the new algorithm ASMODEE (Automatic Selection of Models and Outlier Detection for Epidemics) we monitor changes in potential COVID-19 cases reported through the NHS pathways, including calls to 111, 999, and 111-online. Only the last 6 weeks of data are used.

Note: this research has not been peer-reviewed yet. This website is still experimental. Please contact the authors before using its content.

Models considered here for trend fitting include:

Analyses are run separately for each NHS region.

England

The number of reports via 111/999 suggest the COVID-19 epidemic in England is currently falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in England will be half of todays in 39 days.

NHS regions

The number of local reports to 111/999 suggest the following changes in the rate of growth of the COVID-19 epidemic:

Analyses by age groups

All of England

NHS regions