Using the new algorithm ASMODEE (Automatic Selection of Models and Outlier Detection for Epidemics) we monitor changes in potential COVID-19 cases reported through the NHS pathways, including calls to 111, 999, and 111-online. Only the last 6 weeks of data are used.
Note: this research has not been peer-reviewed yet. This website is still experimental. Please contact the authors before using its content.
Models considered here for trend fitting include:
- linear regression with a linear time effect
- Poisson GLMs
- constant
- with log-linear time effect
- with log-linear time effect and weekend effect (weekend / monday / other day)
- with log-linear time effect and weekday effect
- Negative Binomial GLMs
- constant
- with log-linear time effect
- with log-linear time effect and weekend effect (weekend / monday / other day)
- with log-linear time effect and weekday effect
Analyses are run separately for each NHS region.
England
The number of reports via 111/999 suggest the COVID-19 epidemic in England is currently falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in England will be half of todays in 39 days.
NHS regions
The number of local reports to 111/999 suggest the following changes in the rate of growth of the COVID-19 epidemic:
- East of England is falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in East of England will be half of todays in 33 days.
- London is falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in London will be half of todays in 37 days.
- Midlands region is falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in Midlands will be half of todays in 33 days.
- North East and Yorkshire region is effectively unchanging with a doubling or halving time greater than 50 days.
- North West region is falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in North West will be half of todays in 37 days.
- South East region is falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in South East will be half of todays in 41 days.
- South West region is falling. At current rates the number of daily cases in South West will be half of todays in 38 days.